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Topic: Wishlist Estimates

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Subject: Wishlist Estimates
Date Posted: 2/1/2011 5:52 PM ET
Member Since: 12/31/2009
Posts: 7
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Hi,

I am curious about estimates on wish lists - why does it sometimes give one and sometimes not?   here is an example of two books I have on my wishlist - both say a wish was granted last week - but only one gives an "estimate" while the other says N/A

Your position: 43 of 44 - Wishes granted last week: 1 - Estimate: 43 weeks

Your position: 116 of 120 - Wishes granted last week: 1 - Estimate: N/A

thanks!

 

Date Posted: 2/1/2011 6:03 PM ET
Member Since: 11/13/2005
Posts: 511
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Probably not enough data points.  The first book has probably has about 52 copies posted within the last year, making it likely that 43 copies will be posted in the next 43 weeks.  The second book probably isn't posted very often at all - the copy posted last week may have been the only one ever posted, not enough data to predict the frequency of future postings.

Date Posted: 2/1/2011 6:30 PM ET
Member Since: 8/23/2007
Posts: 26,510
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Also, and someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think it only registers ones that were added to someone's bookshelf here when being marked received.  I think I've seen that posted on here before.

Date Posted: 2/1/2011 6:46 PM ET
Member Since: 10/26/2006
Posts: 279
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Never mind...read it wrong.



Last Edited on: 2/1/11 6:47 PM ET - Total times edited: 1
Date Posted: 2/1/2011 7:04 PM ET
Member Since: 8/16/2007
Posts: 15,201
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Also, and someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think it only registers ones that were added to someone's bookshelf here when being marked received.  I think I've seen that posted on here before. 

I keep seeing that said, but I've never seen anyone state where they got that idea from. It doesn't make one bit of sense to me that it would be that way.

 

We don't have the exact algorithms the site uses for the wish list estimate.  The book without an estimate probably doesn't have enough history behind that 1 wish to calculate. I don't think it would take a year of data (or books wouldn't get an estimate until they were out for a year), but it probably takes at least a few postings in recent months to trigger an estimate.  They really are rough estimates and unless it is a frequently posted book, I don't take them for meaning much.

Date Posted: 2/1/2011 9:50 PM ET
Member Since: 7/31/2007
Posts: 2,693
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it is only an estimate....for all we know that 1 book posted  last week could have been to someone's bookshelf that was at the end of the line or just added it to their wishlist so a friend could post it to them.  It very well could not have taken someone out of the line.

Date Posted: 2/1/2011 10:40 PM ET
Member Since: 7/19/2008
Posts: 15,476
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PBS explained when they added this feature that if you took the book off your bookshelf (when receiving a book you have that option to select not adding it to your bookshelf) then the data was not available for the last posted copy.  That data is part of what the estimates are based on. 

This feature was using data that was already kept by the system.  Sort of a bonus feature, not a separate program. 

But I'm not finding where this was said. 

Date Posted: 2/1/2011 11:21 PM ET
Member Since: 9/27/2008
Posts: 370
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I believe that the algorithms used consist of placing a calender on the ground and feeding their cat a  laxative.  wink



Last Edited on: 2/1/11 11:21 PM ET - Total times edited: 1
Date Posted: 2/1/2011 11:40 PM ET
Member Since: 8/16/2007
Posts: 15,201
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For rarely posted books that would probably produce just as good of estimates Ray!

That is the explanation I've seen from members Emily, but it still doesn't make sense to me. Why would they tie it to the bookshelf of the receiver where the member determines what stays when all transaction history is stored in many other places like the TA. I just wondered if it was actually the Team that was the source of the information or maybe someone mis-interpreting the pop-up definition for "posted" in the Help Center explanation of the estimates.

Date Posted: 2/2/2011 12:53 AM ET
Member Since: 7/19/2008
Posts: 15,476
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I thought it was an explanation that it was not a new program, just a tweak of the existing program.  Sort of letting us see the data, rather than a new feature.  Explaining the limits.



Last Edited on: 2/2/11 12:53 AM ET - Total times edited: 1
Date Posted: 2/2/2011 11:02 AM ET
Member Since: 8/16/2007
Posts: 15,201
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This is the Feedback I received on the last posted date so it seems that it is not affected by whether the receiver puts the book on their shelf or not.

Dear Melanie,

"Last Posted" means the last time that ISBN was posted in the club. It is not affected by anything that happens after that - the posting is the thing that is being recorded for that "last posted on" index.

We hope this information is helpful. Have a great day!

The PaperBackSwap Team
www.PaperBackSwap.com


Sidetrack over :) I was just going a little crazy seeing that said when I had seen stuff that seemed contrary to it when a mass of my WL books showed a posted date (some long before their release date) because someone accidentally loaded a WIsh List into their Bookshelf and "posted" them.

Date Posted: 2/2/2011 11:28 AM ET
Member Since: 4/7/2008
Posts: 15,690
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Thanks so much for finding this out, Melanie! It didn't make any sense to me either that the bookshelf was involved...I'm glad to see confirmation that it wasn't!

Date Posted: 2/2/2011 1:58 PM ET
Member Since: 8/23/2007
Posts: 26,510
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I never got that either but that's what people kept posting here. It would make some sense to connect it to people adding it to their TBR pile but not everyone uses that.  It would make more sense to having it connected to books being marked mailed.  Not to books that were posted and cancelled for some reason. But actually mailed.