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Topic: Not a rant exactly..

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Subject: Not a rant exactly..
Date Posted: 10/16/2010 2:58 PM ET
Member Since: 5/9/2010
Posts: 762
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I check my WL almost everyday.  I've noticed that just about everytime I sort by estimate, that the length of time changes.  It can be disheartening when I check on a particular day the estimate is 2 weeks and the next day or so, it's changed to 12+ weeks.  It's disappointing because I get all excited that a book that I've been anticipating is due to arrive soon and then it's not.  Oh, well.....

Date Posted: 10/16/2010 3:03 PM ET
Member Since: 4/25/2007
Posts: 11,467
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I don't pay attention to the estimate.  Sometimes there's one there and next time I look there's not one at all.

My luck is I sit at #1 for a couple of months before the book gets posted so I can't even look too often.

Date Posted: 10/16/2010 4:01 PM ET
Member Since: 2/13/2007
Posts: 2,264
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Ignore the estimates! They are rarely correct! I have been waiting in line for years for a book, #4 out of XX and there was never an estimate. About a month ago, a copy was posted and that single book has now passed through (been read and reposted) all four of of the first 4 of us in line, and I just sent it on to #5 yesterday... Be patient and be surprised when you are offered a wishlist book -- sometimes faster than anticipated and sometimes slower, but you will always get it ultimately.

Date Posted: 10/16/2010 5:31 PM ET
Member Since: 8/23/2007
Posts: 26,510
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I pay very little attention to my WL other than making sure I delete books I get elsewhere.  Checking it everyday doesn't make them come faster.

Date Posted: 10/16/2010 6:11 PM ET
Member Since: 8/10/2009
Posts: 9,933
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My WL luck this week at least isn't very good.  The system canceled the WL book waiting on my shelf due to an unresponsive member.  I guess I didn't want that book right now anyway.

Not a big surprise this week cause this has been the week from !@#$% for me at PBS.

Only time I pay attention to the estimates is when I'm going out of town and not sure if I'll have a chance to check my account.  Then I'll put the books I really really want that my be coming up soon on automatic.

Date Posted: 10/16/2010 11:05 PM ET
Member Since: 12/28/2006
Posts: 14,171
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Estimates fluctuate alot, try not to let them become a stress factor.

Date Posted: 10/17/2010 7:28 AM ET
Member Since: 4/7/2008
Posts: 15,690
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I don't have the exact formula but I believe the estimates are based of how many copies were posted in a certain period (which I assume is a week) so if you are #100 in the WL and 10 books were posted last week, it will tell you the estimate is 10 weeks, but if the following week only 1 book is posted, the estimate will change to 99 weeks. I wouldn't pay attention to it very much until you get into the 1-2 week range although even those are not reliable because you are trying to estimate the future based on the past (like stocks and we see how those do.) For instance, I added a book to my WL on 9/16 and I was #8 on the WL. I got to #1 within the week and after I got to #1...the book hasn't been posted again. So the estimate went from 2 weeks to N/A because the system can't estimate when the book will be posted again.



Last Edited on: 10/17/10 7:29 AM ET - Total times edited: 1
Date Posted: 10/17/2010 8:25 AM ET
Member Since: 7/12/2010
Posts: 4,177
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I never use the estimate function; I leave it on position.

-RD

Date Posted: 10/17/2010 10:15 AM ET
Member Since: 2/6/2009
Posts: 1,410
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I look at the estimates for kicks but I don't bet my credits on it. I just paitently wait for my Wish Listed books to come to me.

Date Posted: 10/17/2010 11:24 AM ET
Member Since: 1/30/2009
Posts: 5,696
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The less frequently a book is posted, the less accurate the estimate algorithm is.  If a book has 1K wishers and (on average) 60 copies are posted a week, it will likely be fairly accurate.  Books that have a few copies posted here and there - not so much, as there really isn't enough data.  I wouldn't stress.

Date Posted: 10/17/2010 2:54 PM ET
Member Since: 5/3/2006
Posts: 6,436
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I just had a perfectly timed estimation! There had been 15 copies posted last week, so there was a reasonable amount of data, I guess. I don't normally look at them, but I happened to notice this one and was so thrilled.

Date Posted: 10/18/2010 1:39 AM ET
Member Since: 10/22/2009
Posts: 1,452
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I also look at the estimates out of curiousity, but don't really pay much attention to them.  I've had a couple books on my wishlist that seem to be moving up it very quickly--and show and estimate of 1-2 weeks.  Then when I get to #1 or #2 on the list, it seems like all of the sudden no one is posting the book and there is no estimate.  Not a big deal--my TBR pile is so big I don't think I'll get to it in my lifetime, so I'm not in any danger of running out of something to read if my wishlist books decide to stall out.